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Food price inflation tracker: what's happening to grocery costs at the supermarket?
Ellie is an award-winning investigative reporter who has written about retail issues at Which? for more than 12 years.
Which?'s groundbreaking supermarket inflation tracker reveals the supermarkets – and types of food and drink – with the fastest-rising prices.
Overall, inflation is dropping. It had reached one of its highest levels in more than 40 years during the height of the cost of living crisis.
Food price inflation is also starting to dip after several peaks, but it is forecast to increase later this year – mainly due to the conflict in the Middle East.
Ours was the first publicly available tracker to focus solely on supermarket food and drink price inflation. We run it regularly, analysing tens of thousands of prices to reveal:
- which supermarkets have the highest and lowest inflation
- which types of food and drink are rising in price the fastest
- how branded groceries compare with own-label ones
- whether budget ranges or more premium products are going up in price more quickly.
Our tracker looks at 20 popular categories of food and drink at eight supermarkets: Aldi, Asda, Lidl, Morrisons, Ocado, Sainsbury’s, Tesco and Waitrose. It compares prices across the same three-month and one-month periods year-on-year, including discounts but not multibuys or loyalty card offers. We weight the figures based on supermarket market share and the sales volume of each product category.
Food inflation in 2026
Annual inflation for supermarket food and drink in our tracker has started to drop, to 3.1% in the three months to the end of May 2026. That's down from 4.1% in February, 4.7% in November and 5.4% in August. It's significantly lower than its peak of 17% in the three months to the end of April 2023.
Looking at a shorter one-month period, annual inflation also dropped, to 2.4% in May.
This graph shows how food price inflation has changed over the past two years:
Source: Which? Supermarket Inflation Tracker. Inflation is annual, based on three-month periods compared with the same time a year earlier. The number of products included each month varies between 23,000 and 28,000. Tracker moved from running monthly to once every three months starting in December 2023.
Two-year inflation
Last year, prices were already substantially higher than the year or even two years before that.
For example, food prices in the three months to the end of August 2024 were 16.6% higher than in the same period in 2022 – but 2.4% higher year on year (compared to 2023).
- Find out more: how to spend less at the supermarket
Which supermarket has the fastest-rising prices?
The latest figures show that products at Waitrose have the highest inflation, with prices up 3.8% year on year in May. It was followed by Sainsbury's at 3.6%. Products at Aldi had the lowest inflation, at 0.8%.
| Supermarket | Annual inflation for the three months to end May 2026 | Annual inflation for the month of May 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Waitrose | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Sainsbury's | 4.2% | 3.6% |
| Tesco | 3.5% | 2.9% |
| Asda | 3.1% | 2.3% |
| Ocado | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Lidl | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Morrisons | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Aldi | 1.5% | 0.8% |
Source: Which? Supermarket Inflation Tracker. The three-month figure may be more robust as it covers a longer time period; however, the one-month figure reflects recent changes in inflation more clearly.
This graph shows annual inflation based on three-month periods at each supermarket:
Remember, inflation is a measure of how quickly prices are rising or falling and not of the absolute price. The supermarkets with the highest inflation could also be the cheapest.
- Find out more: which is the cheapest supermarket this month?
Which food types have the highest inflation?
Fish prices rose fastest of all 20 categories in our research, followed by energy drinks. Butters and spreads and chocolate have the lowest inflation, but all categories except butters and spreads are more expensive than in May last year, on average.
| Type of food or drink | Annual inflation for the three months to the end of May 2026 | Annual inflation for the month of May 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Fish | 10.6% | 11% |
| Energy drinks | 6.5% | 5.9% |
| Fizzy drinks | 4.3% | 3.9% |
| Water | 4.1% | 3.4% |
| Savoury pies, pastries and quiches | 3.9% | 3.4% |
| Fresh fruit | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| Chilled ready meals | 4.1% | 3.2% |
| Vegetables | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| Crisps | 2.6% | 2.8% |
| Biscuits | 3.2% | 2.7% |
| Milk | 2.8% | 2.5% |
| Meat | 3.5% | 2.5% |
| Cakes and cookies | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Bakery | 2.3% | 1.7% |
| Cereals | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Yoghurts | 1.7% | 1.1% |
| Juice drinks and smoothies | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Cheese | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Chocolate | 4.7% | 0% |
| Butters and spreads | -0.1% | -0.8% |
Source: Which? Supermarket Inflation Tracker. The three-month figure may be more robust as it covers a longer time period; however, the one-month figure will reflect recent changes in inflation more clearly.
This graph shows annual inflation based on three-month periods for five of the categories that originally had the highest inflation:
Are branded or own-label groceries worse for inflation?
Currently, own-label budget food and drink has the highest rate of inflation among ranges, with prices up 4% year on year in May.
| Range of groceries | Annual inflation for the three months to the end of May 2026 | Annual inflation for the month of May 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Own-label premium | 4.9% | 2.8% |
| Own-label standard | 4.4% | 3.2% |
| Own-label budget | 4.3% | 4.0% |
| Branded | 2.9% | 2.2% |
Source: Which? Supermarket Inflation Tracker. The three-month figure may be more robust as it covers a longer time period; however, the one-month figure will reflect recent changes in inflation more clearly.
Here are the results displayed visually based on three-month figures, over a longer period of time:
Why are food prices rising?
Food prices have been rising for a variety of reasons.
Prices for feed, fertiliser and fuel – which are all needed to produce food and drink – rose dramatically due to the war in Ukraine.
This was coupled with the knock-on effects of disruption during the pandemic, as well as spiralling energy and labour costs. Poor harvests in Europe and North and West Africa may also have had an effect. For example, cocoa and sugar production has been hit by poor weather, disease and a decline in the number of farmers.
More recently, some people have also blamed rises in employers' National Insurance contributions and the minimum wage.
Some experts have also warned the US-Israeli war with Iran could drive up food production costs again.