Consumers in Wales - a food briefing

Introduction

Food inflation has risen at its fastest rate in 45 years, reaching 19.2% in March 2023.

Which?’s research has shown that these historically high price rises in the food sector are having a major impact on consumers across the UK, forcing them to cut back, seek special offers and even skip meals [1].  Our research shows that as a result, it is becoming more difficult for people to eat healthily, particularly for those who are facing the most financial difficulty. 42% of all consumers in Wales say they are finding eating healthily more difficult due to the cost of living crisis, but over two-thirds (70%) of those who say they are struggling the most financially say they are finding it harder to eat healthily now. 

There is an important role for the Welsh and UK governments in supporting people through this crisis. There have been some positive steps taken in Wales that will help support struggling families such as the roll out of universal free school meals for primary school children [2]. But consumers in Wales are facing unprecedented challenges and there is a lot more that the government - as well as the food sector - can do to support consumers. Which?’s Affordable Food For All campaign focuses on the important role that supermarkets can play in supporting people to access affordable food and ensure that they are able to choose the best value products through this crisis. 

In this briefing, we share the latest data on how these sustained high levels of food inflation are changing consumer behaviour in Wales, drawing on a previously unpublished, nationally representative survey of consumers in Wales conducted in December 2022, as well as our Cost of Living research panel [3].  We explore how consumers in Wales have been affected by rising food prices, how this impact differs for more vulnerable groups, and what changes consumers in Wales would like supermarkets to make to help out during this crisis. We also highlight which neighbourhoods in Wales are most likely to find it difficult to access affordable food, and thus where interventions will be most valuable, using our Priority Places for Food Index - a tool developed by Which? and the Consumer Data Research Centre at the University of Leeds to help identify places in the UK where people are most likely to need support to access affordable food.

You can access our complete library of data to understand the challenges facing consumers from our consumer data hub.

Our key findings 

• Worry about food prices is rising for all consumers in Wales; however, working-age parents are the most worried, with over 9 in 10 stating they were worried about food prices.
• Eight in ten, 80% of consumers in Wales are taking some form of action to save money on food.
• Consumers in Wales would most like supermarkets to support them through this time of high food inflation by having more budget-range foods available, more promotions on healthy products and more loyalty card discounts on healthier products.
• Priority places (i.e., the 20% of neighbourhoods that are in most in need of support, identified by our Priority Places for Food Index [4]) are concentrated in the valleys, particularly in the South Wales East electoral region. These neighbourhoods are most at risk of food insecurity, and where interventions to help people access affordable food will be most valuable.

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The vast majority of consumers in Wales are worried about food prices

Food inflation has continued to rise over the past year reaching its fastest rate in 45 years, 19.2% in March 2023 [5]. 

Supermarket prices have been rising most for essential products such as cheese and milk, with Which?’s food inflation tracker finding these products rose on average by 25.3% and 24.2%, respectively in the 12 months to March 2023 [6]. These sustained high levels of inflation are impacting living standards, with a larger impact on households [7] with children and low-income households who spend proportionally more on these essential goods.

Consumers in Wales have become increasingly concerned about food prices, with the latest data showing 86% are worried about food prices, up 11 percentage points from the same time in 2021. The worry about food prices is greatest among working-age parents surveyed in Wales as shown in Figure 1, with nine in ten (90%) worried. This is higher than among working-age parents in England where 88% are worried but lower than the level of worry among working-age parents in Scotland (93%) and Northern Ireland (95%).

Figure 1: Nine in ten working-age parents surveyed in Wales are worried about food prices

The level of worry is higher for low income consumers [8] surveyed in Wales with over nine in ten worried (91%) compared with 85% of higher income consumers in Wales. The level of worry for low income consumers in England is lower, where 86% are worried about food prices in the latest data.

How are consumers in Wales responding to rising food prices?

The vast majority of consumers in Wales are responding to their worry about food prices by actively trying to reduce their food bill.

Eight in ten (80%) consumers are taking at least one action to reduce their food bill. 

Figure 2: Eight in ten consumers in Wales are taking at least one action to reduce their food bills

The majority (56%) of consumers in Wales are buying cheaper products and nearly half (49%) are shopping around in cheaper supermarkets or online. 

A member of our Cost of Living research panel living in Wales told us some of the ways they can save money at the supermarket. 

“It was cheaper to buy frozen. Also I could buy in bulk e.g. 2 for £5. I could use discount vouchers or free delivery. A lot of the meals were repetitive.”

These actions reduce the cost of food bills without necessarily reducing consumption, but might reduce the healthiness of the food consumed.

Our survey suggests this is the case, with 42% of consumers in Wales saying they are finding eating healthily more difficult due to the cost of living crisis, rising to over two-thirds, (70%), of those who say they are struggling the most financially. Those with children are being hit harder too with over half, (57%), of working-age parents in Wales finding it harder to eat healthily.  

Consumers in Wales who are finding it harder to eat healthily due to the cost of living crisis told us some of the reasons why they are finding it more difficult.

“The price of oven chips and frozen meals are a lot cheaper than healthy meals which involve a lot more protein and take a long time to cook which costs more in gas.” 

-Female, 25

“We rely on easy meals because we have two children. Healthy convenient meals are very expensive compared with unhealthy convenient meals.” 

- Female, 32

Concerningly, some consumers in Wales are taking more drastic steps to reduce the cost of their food bill, with 12% reporting going without or skipping meals and 7.5% prioritising meals for other family members. Even more worrying, nearly one in five (18%) of working-age parents in Wales are going without or skipping meals and the same proportion (18%) are prioritising meals for other family members. Low income consumers are also really struggling, with 21% going without or skipping meals. 

Which neighbourhoods in Wales are most in need?

There are many reasons why people may find it difficult to access affordable food.

Some relate to individuals' circumstances, like lower incomes. Other reasons relate to the place that someone lives, such as the level of retail provision or the quality of public transport. In the case of accessing affordable food online, barriers may be both place-based (limited or no online deliveries) or related to the individual (limited capability to shop online).

 Our Priority Places for Food Index [9], developed in partnership with the Consumer Data Research Centre at the University of Leeds, draws together data that captures all of these elements to identify priority places where interventions to help people access affordable food will be most valuable. This composite index combines data from seven different factors. Three factors focus on the likely need of individuals in a neighbourhood for affordable food and their ability to access it. These factors cover socio-economic barriers (income deprivation and car access), the likely need for family food support (for example eligibility for free school meals) and measures of fuel poverty. The final four factors relate to the level of opportunity to access food retailers in different neighbourhoods. These factors are the proximity of supermarket retail facilities, the accessibility of supermarket retail facilities, access to online deliveries and proximity to non-supermarket food provision. Further detail on the Priority Places for Food Index and the factors are provided in the annex (download with the full report).

Priority places by region

We have defined a priority place as a neighbourhood which ranks in the lowest 20% in the Priority Places for Food Index. These are the neighbourhoods based on our index where people are likely to face the most serious challenges accessing affordable food and where interventions are likely to be most valuable.

There is wide variation in where priority places are located across electoral regions in Wales. The Senedd region with the greatest frequency of priority places is in South Wales East, and the lowest is North Wales. The prevalence of priority places in Welsh Senedd regions is explored in more detail in Table 1.

Table 1: Priority Places in Welsh Senedd Regions

Figure 3: Priority Places in Welsh Senedd Regions

A higher proportion of priority places in Wales are in rural areas compared with England and Scotland. There are a few priority places in large cities such as Cardiff, Swansea or Newport.

Figure 4: Over a third of the priority places in Wales are in rural places

Priority places in Welsh Constituencies 

To further explore how priority places are distributed around Wales we have aggregated neighbourhoods up to the level of Welsh constituencies. 

73% of Welsh constituencies in Wales have at least one priority place, and in six constituencies at least half of the neighbourhoods are priority places.

Table 2: 6 Welsh constituencies where over half of the neighbourhoods are a priority place

Healthy start takeup

Government has an important role in providing a nutritional safety net, as well as ensuring that people are not forced to trade down, and there are adequate protections in place. 

With so many people, especially families, skipping meals, the need for support is obvious. One route is the NHS Healthy Start Scheme [10], which offers financial support with food spending to low-income families in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Healthy Start provides pregnant women and families with children under 4 on qualifying benefits or tax credits money towards some healthy foods, including milk, infant formula and fruit and vegetables. Since April 2021, it has been worth £8.50 per week for children aged 0 to 1 and £4.25 for all other recipients.

However, participation in the scheme has varied over time and across locations. In May 2023, 69% of the 30,618 eligible individuals in Wales were participating in the scheme. Participation is higher in Wales compared to England, 65%, and Northern Ireland, 55%. However, all three nations have lower participation than the similar scheme in Scotland, Best Start Foods, which had an estimated 88% takeup in 2021/22 [11].

Participation rose significantly as the scheme moved from using paper vouchers to a prepaid card between September 2021 to March 2022 as shown in Figure 5. During this rollout period, participation increased by over 12 percentage points from 66% to 78% across Wales. However, participation has fallen since March 2022. This is likely due to some people choosing not to reapply for the new prepaid card scheme when the paper vouchers were stopped. 

Figure 5: Take up of the Healthy Start scheme increased during the roll out of the pre-paid system but has since fallen

Takeup varies widely across local authorities in Wales, as shown in Figure 6. Across Wales, there tends to be higher takeup in more urban and industrial areas, but lower uptake in rural areas. In May 2023, the lowest participation was 60% in Powys and the highest 76% in Neath Port Talbot.

Figure 6: Takeup of healthy start tends to be lower in rural local authorities

We have identified 10 Welsh local authorities which have significant capacity to improve take up, listed in Table 3. These local authorities all have over 1,000 eligible individuals,at least 30% of whom were not actively participating in the scheme in May 2023. This analysis shows the importance of this type of support, but also the important role that the government has, working with other stakeholders, in ensuring that those who are eligible are accessing the scheme.

Table 3: 10 Welsh local authorities that have over 1,000 eligible individuals and under 70% of them are currently benefiting from the scheme

The role for supermarkets

With so many consumers in Wales already actively reducing the cost of their food bill, there’s not much left that consumers can do themselves without further lowering their living standards. 

They will look for support from a range of sources, including government, charities and local community groups. However, the fundamental role of the largest supermarkets in the UK’s grocery market means that these businesses have a key role to play in supporting communities. 

We asked consumers to pick three options that would help them save the most money on food in supermarkets, from a range of possible actions that supermarkets already are or could be taking as shown in Figure 7.  

Figure 7: A third of consumers in Wales would like more budget foods to be available at supermarkets

The most popular choice was having more budget range foods available, which was chosen by a third of consumers in Wales. This will be particularly key in places with only small stores nearby, or where consumers are more likely to have limited mobility or access to transport to access larger stores, as we recently found that small stores are likely to have little to no stock of an essential basket of budget line items [12]. Looking across demographics, working-age parents in Wales are more likely to say that higher availability of budget lines will help them (40%) than non-parents of working age (35%) or pensioners (23%).

Other popular choices included, ‘more promotions on healthy products and ingredients’, ‘more loyalty card discounts’ and ‘personalised loyalty card discounts targeting the things I normally buy’ which were all chosen by 30% consumers in Wales. 

Actions supermarkets can take will be most beneficial if targeted at communities in places with the most need for them. For example, the importance of providing budget lines that support healthy eating, tailoring marketing budgets and promotions, promoting the Healthy Start scheme will all vary from place to place and to be most effective retailers may want to focus their efforts on particular places using the Priority Places for Food Index. Our Index is able to show which supermarkets are located in which areas and what type of store they have. It also shows other food retailers. This tool therefore enables supermarkets to see where they can most usefully focus their efforts. 

Conclusion

Sustained high food prices are causing widespread hardship for consumers in Wales. The vast majority are both concerned about food prices and taking actions to reduce their food bill. The most vulnerable (working-age parents and those on lower incomes) are the most worried about food prices and significantly more likely to be engaging in potentially harmful behaviours such as skipping meals. It is therefore crucial that people are given the support they need to navigate the current crisis and access healthy, affordable food. 

There are a wide range of actions that the government needs to take to support households through this crisis. This includes ongoing support for energy bills and providing an effective nutritional ‘safety’ net for families who are most vulnerable. More generally there has to be a transition to a more sustainable and resilient food system. However, at this time of crisis, we believe that businesses also have a crucial role to play and that supermarkets in particular could do a lot more to support their customers. A range of essential budget lines that support a healthy diet need to be available in smaller, as well as larger stores and pricing should be made clearer and more transparent across the board, including by providing unit pricing on loyalty card offers.

The Priority Places for Food Index has identified parts of Wales where people are most likely to need support in accessing affordable food and can be used as a tool for government, retailers and others trying to support consumers through the cost of living crisis.

Footnotes

[1] Which? (2022), Affordable Food for All: how supermarkets can help in the cost of food crisis, Which? (2023), Financial wellbeing in February 2023  ↑

[2] Welsh Government (2022), Universal Primary Free School Meals (UPFSM)  ↑

[3] The Cost of Living Panel is a longitudinal panel made up of 30 households from across the UK. The panel started in October 2022 and will run until September 2023, and focuses on the impact of the cost of living crisis  ↑

[4] Consumer Data Research Centre, Priority Places for Food Index  ↑

[5] Office of National Statistics (2023), Consumer price inflation, UK: April 2023  ↑

[6] Which? (2023), What's happening to supermarket food prices?  ↑

[7] Which? (2023), Inflation and Household Spending - January 2023  ↑

[8] Self reported as having a household income up to £21,000, sample base size is 257  ↑

[9] The index uses data for very low level geographies and refers to small areas of similar population size. It is constructed individually for each of the nations of the UK as not all of the same data is available for each nation, so direct comparisons cannot be made between places in different nations  ↑

[10] NHS, Healthy Start scheme  ↑

[11] Scottish Government (2023), Social Security (Scotland) Act (2018): Devolved Social Security Assistance, Uprating for Inflation - A report in fulfilment of section 86A: Duty to consider effects of inflation  ↑

[12] Jooshandeh, J., Di Marcello, T. and Davies, S., Just the basics: Assessing the availability of supermarket budget ranges, Which?, April 2023, As part of this study participants visited several large and very large Asda and Morrisons stores in Wales  ↑

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