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Why are mortgage rates rising, and will they keep going up?

Base rate cut fails to bring flurry of cheaper mortgage deals

With the base rate having fallen last week, you might be wondering why mortgages don’t seem to be getting cheaper. 

Overall, mortgage rates have ticked up slightly since the Bank of England's announcement, but the longer term picture looks brighter for borrowers.

Read on to find out about the factors that influence mortgage rates, and what experts think will happen next. 

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Mortgage rates rise despite base rate cut

Last week, the Bank of England reduced its base rate from 5% to 4.75%, the second cut of the year. 

However, this hasn't sparked a flurry of cheaper mortgage deals. 

Instead, more than a dozen lenders have increased the prices of their fixed-rate mortgages over the last week.

The list includes major lenders such as First Direct, Coventry Building Society and Skipton Building Society.

David Hollingworth of the broker L&C mortgages says this adds up to a confusing market for home buyers

He says: 'Most borrowers have continued to fix their mortgages to benefit from lower rates compared to variable-rate deals.  

'Counter intuitively, those fixed-rates have been nudging upwards despite the cut to base rate, as the market perception of the inflation and rate outlook has shifted.'

The impact on average mortgage rates

Data from Moneyfacts shows a slight overall increase in average mortgage rates in the last week.

Last Monday, the average two-year fixed-rate mortgage was priced 5.39%, and the average five-year fixed-rate deal 5.09%. 

These averages have crept up to 5.42% and 5.14% respectively.

This isn't just down to lenders raising their prices. Rather than increasing rates, some banks have chosen to instead withdraw market-leading products.

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Why are rates rising?

Economic events, such as the recent Autumn Budget and last week's base rate cut, can have an impact the cost of borrowing for mortgage lenders. 

Market sentiment can be fickle, but when pricing their home loans, lenders must take a long-term view. 

Robert Gardner of Nationwide says: 'When setting rates for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage, lenders are already incorporating what they expect average rates to be over the next five years.

'Consequently, if a lender believes the base rate will remain higher over the long-term than was previously predicted, this can push the cost of mortgages up.' 

Signals to the market 

Nicholas Mendes of the broker John Charcol says: 'After a base rate decision, the Bank of England's statement and voting behavior provide signals to the market about future rate movements.'

In last week's base rate announcement, the Bank of England expressed concerns about the prospect of rising inflation over the medium term. 

This potentially handed a signal to lenders that the rate is now less likely to be cut at the next meeting in December.

Managing capacity 

When lenders offer market-leading rates, they often set a limit on the number of loans they are willing to provide at those rates. 

Once that limit is reached, the lender may withdraw their deals or increase their rates.

The lender’s capacity to handle an increase in applications can be another factor.

If a lender is overwhelmed by a high volume of applications, it may raise its rates to dampen demand.

Will mortgage rates continue to rise?

It's unlikely that rates will drop over the next few weeks, but the longer term outlook is more positive for borrowers. 

Matt Smith of the property portal Rightmove says: ‘This base rate decision comes at the end of a run of important macro-economic and political events on both sides of the Atlantic. 

‘This has resulted in the view that the base rate will be cut at a more moderated pace than previously expected. Therefore we are likely to see average mortgage rates drift up a little in the short term’.

Nicholas Mendes says he believes the downward trend in rates will resume 'before the end of the year, with further improvements next year.'

What to do if you're applying for a mortgage

If you're coming up to remortgage or are looking to buy a home, you might wish to discuss your options with a mortgage broker.

With so many deals on the market and lenders chopping and changing their rates, it can be difficult to find the right option for your circumstances. 

David Hollingworth believes time is of the essence for borrowers hoping to lock in one of the cheapest deals.

He says: 'There are still some extremely sharp rates on offer. Some deals are still available below 4%, but these are bound to be feeling the pressure.'

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